Unusually high rate of recovery from low back pain
Two pages on PainSci cite Coste 1994: 1. The Complete Guide to Low Back Pain 2. The Complete Guide to Neck Pain & Cricks
PainSci notes on Coste 1994:
This paper presents some unusually optimistic old data about low back pain recovery: in a sample of about 100 patients, “90% of patients recovered within two weeks and only two developed chronic low back pain,” which is “much higher than reported in other studies,” but the authors suggest some good reasons why their number makes sense.
original abstract †Abstracts here may not perfectly match originals, for a variety of technical and practical reasons. Some abstacts are truncated for my purposes here, if they are particularly long-winded and unhelpful. I occasionally add clarifying notes. And I make some minor corrections.
OBJECTIVE: To describe the natural course of recent acute low back pain in terms of both morbidity (pain, disability) and absenteeism from work and to evaluate the prognostic factors for these outcomes.
DESIGN: Inception cohort study.
SETTING: Primary care.
PATIENTS: 103 patients with acute localised non-specific back pain lasting less than 72 hours.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Complete recovery (disappearance of both pain and disability) and return to work.
RESULTS: 90% of patients recovered within two weeks and only two developed chronic low back pain. Only 49 of 100 patients for whom data were available had bed rest and 40% of 75 employed patients lost no time from work. Proportional hazards regression analysis showed that previous chronic episodes of low back pain, initial disability level, initial pain worse when standing, initial pain worse when lying, and compensation status were significantly associated with delayed episode recovery.These factors were also related to abseteeism from work. Absenteeism from work was also influenced by job satisfaction and gender.
CONCLUSIONS: The recovery rate from acute low back pain was much higher than reported in other studies. Those studies, however, did not investigate groups of patients enrolled shortly after the onset of symptoms and often mixed acute low back pain patients with patients with exacerbations of chronic pain or sciatica. Several sociodemographic and clinical factors were of prognostic value in acute low back pain. Factors which incluenced the outcome in terms of episode recovery (mainly physical severity factors) were only partly predictive of absenteeism from work. Time off work and return to work depended more on sociodemographic and job related incluences.
related content
- “Acute low back pain: systematic review of its prognosis,” Pengel et al, British Medical Journal, 2003.
- “Prognosis for patients with chronic low back pain: inception cohort study,” Costa et al, British Medical Journal, 2009.
- “The prognosis of acute and persistent low-back pain: a meta-analysis,” Costa et al, CMAJ, 2012.
- “The annual incidence and course of neck pain in the general population: a population-based cohort study,” Côté et al, Pain, 2004.
This page is part of the PainScience BIBLIOGRAPHY, which contains plain language summaries of thousands of scientific papers & others sources. It’s like a highly specialized blog. A few highlights:
- Long-Term Effects of Repeated Injections of Local Anesthetic With or Without Corticosteroid for Lumbar Spinal Stenosis: A Randomized Trial. Friedly 2017 Arch Phys Med Rehabil.
- Cannabis-based medicines for chronic neuropathic pain in adults. Ateş 2026 Cochrane Database Syst Rev.
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- Optimizing elastic band resistance training for Metabolic Syndrome components in older adults: A systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression of randomized controlled trials. Saez-Berlanga 2026 Arch Phys Med Rehabil.
- Biomechanical insights into Achilles tendinopathy risk and protection in runners: a large prospective study 4HAIE. Jandacka 2026 Br J Sports Med.