original abstract †Abstracts here may not perfectly match originals, for a variety of technical and practical reasons. Some abstacts are truncated for my purposes here, if they are particularly long-winded and unhelpful. I occasionally add clarifying notes. And I make some minor corrections.
STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of randomly selected Veterans Affairs out-patients without baseline low back pain (LBP).
OBJECTIVE: To determine predictors of new LBP as well as the 3-year incidence of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings.
SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Few prospective studies have examined clinical and anatomic risk factors for the development of LBP, or the incidence of new imaging findings and their relationship to back pain onset.
METHODS: We randomly selected 148 Veterans Affairs out-patients (aged 35 to 70) without LBP in the past 4 months. We compared baseline and 3-year lumbar spine MRI. Using data collected every 4 months, we developed a prediction model of back pain-free survival.
RESULTS: After 3 years, 131 subjects were contacted, and 123 had repeat MRI. The 3-year incidence of pain was 67% (88 of 131). Depression had the largest hazard ratio (2.3, 95% CI = 1.2-4.4) of any baseline predictor of inci-dent back pain. Among baseline imaging findings, central spinal stenosis and nerve root contact had the highest, though nonsignificant, hazard ratios. We did not find an association between new LBP and type 1 endplate changes, disc degeneration, annular tears, or facet degeneration. The incidence of new MRI findings was low, with the most common new finding being disc signal loss in 11 (9%) subjects. All five subjects with new disc extrusions and all four subjects with new nerve root impingement had new pain.
CONCLUSION: Depression is an important predictor of new LBP, with MRI findings likely less important. New imaging findings have a low incidence; disc extrusions and nerve root contact may be the most important of these findings.
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This page is part of the PainScience BIBLIOGRAPHY, which contains plain language summaries of thousands of scientific papers & others sources. It’s like a highly specialized blog. A few highlights:
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- Prediction of an extruded fragment in lumbar disc patients from clinical presentations. Pople 1994 Spine (Phila Pa 1976).
- Characteristics of patients with low back and leg pain seeking treatment in primary care: baseline results from the ATLAS cohort study. Konstantinou 2015 BMC Musculoskelet Disord.
- Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of universal school-based mindfulness training compared with normal school provision in reducing risk of mental health problems and promoting well-being in adolescence: the MYRIAD cluster randomised controlled trial. Kuyken 2022 Evid Based Ment Health.
- Is there a relationship between throbbing pain and arterial pulsations? Mirza 2012 J Neurosci.