The annual incidence and course of neck pain in the general population: a population-based cohort study
One page on PainSci cites Côté 2004: The Complete Guide to Neck Pain & Cricks
PainSci commentary on Côté 2004: ?This page is one of thousands in the PainScience.com bibliography. It is not a general article: it is focused on a single scientific paper, and it may provide only just enough context for the summary to make sense. Links to other papers and more general information are provided wherever possible.
About 35% of cases of neck pain were “persistent” according to this Canadian survey of 1100 randomly selected Saskatchewan adults in 2004. “Contrary to prior belief, most individuals with neck pain do not experience complete resolution of their symptoms and disability.”
original abstract †Abstracts here may not perfectly match originals, for a variety of technical and practical reasons. Some abstacts are truncated for my purposes here, if they are particularly long-winded and unhelpful. I occasionally add clarifying notes. And I make some minor corrections.
Although neck pain is a common source of disability, little is known about its incidence and course. We conducted a population-based cohort study of 1100 randomly selected Saskatchewan adults to determine the annual incidence of neck pain and describe its course. Subjects were initially surveyed by mail in September 1995 and followed-up 6 and 12 months later. The age and gender standardized annual incidence of neck pain is 14.6% (95% confidence interval: 11.3, 17.9). Each year, 0.6% (95% confidence interval: 0.0-1.1) of the population develops disabling neck pain. The annual rate of resolution of neck pain is 36.6% (95% confidence interval: 32.7, 40.5) and another 32.7% (95% confidence interval: 25.5, 39.9) report improvement. Among subjects with prevalent neck pain at baseline, 37.3% (95% confidence interval: 33.4, 41.2) report persistent problems and 9.9% (95% confidence interval: 7.4, 12.5) experience an aggravation during follow-up. Finally, 22.8% (95% confidence interval: 16.4, 29.3) of those with prevalent neck pain at baseline report a recurrent episode. Women are more likely than men to develop neck pain (incidence rate ratio=1.67, 95% confidence interval 1.08-2.60); more likely to suffer from persistent neck problems (incidence rate ratio=1.19, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.38) and less likely to experience resolution (incidence rate ratio=0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.63-0.88). Neck pain is a disabling condition with a course marked by periods of remission and exacerbation. Contrary to prior belief, most individuals with neck pain do not experience complete resolution of their symptoms and disability.
related content
- “Acute low back pain: systematic review of its prognosis,” Pengel et al, British Medical Journal, 2003.
- “Clinical course and prognostic factors in acute low back pain: an inception cohort study in primary care practice,” Coste et al, British Medical Journal, 1994.
- “Prognosis for patients with chronic low back pain: inception cohort study,” Costa et al, British Medical Journal, 2009.
- “The prognosis of acute and persistent low-back pain: a meta-analysis,” Costa et al, CMAJ, 2012.
This page is part of the PainScience BIBLIOGRAPHY, which contains plain language summaries of thousands of scientific papers & others sources. It’s like a highly specialized blog. A few highlights:
- Placebo analgesia in physical and psychological interventions: Systematic review and meta-analysis of three-armed trials. Hohenschurz-Schmidt 2024 Eur J Pain.
- Recovery trajectories in common musculoskeletal complaints by diagnosis contra prognostic phenotypes. Aasdahl 2021 BMC Musculoskelet Disord.
- Cannabidiol (CBD) products for pain: ineffective, expensive, and with potential harms. Moore 2023 J Pain.
- Moderators of the effect of therapeutic exercise for knee and hip osteoarthritis: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis. Holden 2023 The Lancet Rheumatology.
- Inciting events associated with lumbar disc herniation. Suri 2010 Spine J.